The unemployment situation was reported early this morning, and it was good! The consensus range was for 9.0%, and the actual number came in at 8.6%, the lowest level in 32 months! Click here for a link to the report from Bloomberg. Remember I told you all about the economic calendar a while back in order to know exactly when these important pieces of data would be released? Always keep an eye on that as it will give you an update for the entire week ahead (maybe even further, I haven't looked).
Have a look at this chart:
It appears that the average unemployment rate when we are not in recession is between 4-6%. Hopefully we are on our way back down to that level, although is this realistic? I checked the unemployment levels of countries across the world and this graph is what I got. I also double checked other sources and they all say what this graph says.
If it's too small to read I'm sorry. Basically, what it's saying is that in the developed world, the average unemployment rate is between 5-10%. Interesting that in Mexico it's 0-5%, I wasn't expecting that. Then again, I don't know much about Mexico's economy. So, in answering my question, it does seem realistic that we could maintain an unemployment rate of around 5,6,7 %. Eventually, we will trend back down toward that level, maybe even as low as 4%.
I wish I could predict whether this trend (unemployment rates dropping) will continue. Hopefully they will, although that is contingent upon the situation in Europe and our own debt problems.
Please check out the piece I hyperlinked, as it provides some nice graphs on the unemployment situation in the U.S.
Back to studying I go.
Adios,
EZ
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